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Writer's pictureEssequal Kellog Dubleyu

The Inevitability Of Catastrophic System Failures. Can We Continue To Find Solace In Our Normalcy Bias?

Updated: Sep 28


Within the next twenty years, it is projected that 4 billion people, which will be more than half of the current global population, will be affected by severe heat waves comparable to the most extreme ones recorded so far. In 2019, the world lost approximately 302 billion work hours due to rising temperatures, marking a surge of over 50 percent compared to two decades prior. This trend is expected to persist, resulting in a substantial decrease in productivity and impacting national economies. In 2021, the global economies collectively produced goods and services worth nearly 100 trillion dollars. This then raises the question: how much will be needed in the 21st century to recover from the upcoming natural disasters caused by climate change? What portion of global productivity will have to be diverted away from investments in innovation for our future? Think: siphoned off!


Each year, approximately 10 million individuals across the globe are at risk of extreme heat levels exceeding survivable thresholds, emphasizing a significant global health emergency. This alarming statistic emphasizes the crucial necessity of increasing awareness of a fundamental question: Who will remain unaffected? The question then arises: how many of us can access shelter in air-conditioned spaces versus how many lack this privilege? Remember, the human body cannot survive outside the temperature bandwidth of 36.5-37.5 degrees Celsius. Yes, that is 1 degree.


Highly respected professionals, known for their deep understanding and impartial viewpoints, have clearly identified climate change as the most urgent health risk in the present era. Their knowledge highlights the complex connection between changes in the environment and public health. The crucial need to address the negative impacts of increasing temperatures on human health cannot be effectively addressed in a future of humanity's descent of decency and a commensurate rise of apathy.


As temperatures continue to soar and extreme weather events become more frequent, the imperative to prioritize climate action to safeguard global health becomes increasingly evident. The convergence of scientific evidence and expert consensus underscores the gravity of the situation, calling for concerted efforts at local, national, and international levels to combat the escalating health risks posed by climate change. Together, these experts collectively condemned world leaders for their continued failure to protect the environment, highlighting it as the most significant risk to global public health.


Unfortunately, it seems that the call has been overlooked. In addition to the considerable threat of heatstroke, a warmer climate will bring forth further challenges to health and well-being. For every 1°C increase in the global average temperature, there is an anticipated rise of around 10 percent in the mortality rate from respiratory diseases. There are other consequences.


For example, approximately 33,000 people are currently falling victim to pollution caused by the rising frequency and scale of wildfires every year, posing significant risks especially for firefighters. Moreover, individuals who spend extended periods outdoors, especially in tropical and equatorial regions, face the highest risk. Remember June 26, 2021, and Sebastian Francisco Perez? (No! Not a single isolated incident.)


Many of us take solace in the false belief that those of us who live in major metropolitan cities will be immune from the looming catastrophic system failures due to climate change. On the contrary, it is essential to acknowledge that cities are not exempt from the impact of environmental factors. The urban heat island effect leads to notable temperature variances between densely populated urban areas and the surrounding rural areas. Workers in urban factories lacking air conditioning are increasingly susceptible to heat-related illnesses as global temperatures continue to climb. The prevalence of cataracts, for example, is set to rise, with cases of malignant melanoma anticipated to increase by 50 percent by 2040. There are other risks.


Furthermore, individuals who stay at home are not necessarily at a lower risk. Take a look at the statistics regarding the increase in fatalities in Paris during August-September 2023. This was when temperatures soared to 35.4 degrees Celsius. Paris experienced above-average temperatures for nine consecutive days. This heatwave led to approximately 15,000 incremental deaths compared to the average numbers for that same timeframe. These unfortunate statistics emerged especially among the elderly population in Paris. They were left at home with no air conditioning by vacationing family members.


Urban housing in both developed and developing nations is facing a critical challenge as we move towards the mid-21st century and beyond. The looming increase in temperature and humidity levels poses a significant threat to the current infrastructure and living conditions in cities worldwide. Current estimates predict some 800 cities across the globe will inevitably have to deal with this looming crisis. Almost half of these cities do not have adequate plans in place to deal with the upcoming effects of climate change.


It is also critical to acknowledge the insidiously emerging and often overlooked mental health challenges that affect individuals impacted by the repercussions of severe weather occurrences, including those who have faced unemployment or displacement from their homes. Research has highlighted that climate change has been a contributing factor to the suicides of almost 60,000 agricultural workers in India over the last three decades.


The same researchers emphasized the critical situation confronting farmers in India, demonstrating that a mere 1°C increase in temperature during the growing season led to an average of 67 additional suicides per day, while a 5°C escalation resulted in 335 extra self-inflicted deaths. Conversely, each additional centimeter of annual rainfall was associated with a 7 percent decrease in suicide rates. Since 1995, over 300,000 Indian farmers and agricultural laborers have tragically taken their own lives. Without proactive measures such as insurance initiatives to mitigate crop losses, it is projected that this figure will escalate due to rising temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns. Furthermore, clear connections exist between climate change and mental health issues.


Which then raises the big “elephant in the room” question: when scarcity becomes a global reality, and the epoch of abundance becomes a faint silhouette in our rearview mirrors, and inflation runs amok beyond the controls of the "wise" policymakers, and catastrophic structural failures proliferate in "cascades" and empathy morphs into apathy, will altruism prevail among humans?


Think about it!

(Note: Stats are sourced from: "Hot House Earth: An Inhabitant's Guide" by Bill McGuire)



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